Monday 19 January 2015

Iain Dale predictions of seats the Lib Dems will win.

These are blogger Iain Dales predictions for the Lib Dem seats. I've annotated his words with my own view in bold and or brackets.

I think the LibDems can only be confident of winning 8 seats for definite. And these are…

Ceredigion
Leeds North West
North Norfolk
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Only so long as Charles Kennedy is candidate)
Sheffield Hallam
Westmorland & Lonsdale (Only because of Tim Farron)
Yeovil
Let me make it clear, I don’t believe the LibDems will only win 8 seats, but these are the only ones I reckon they can be 100% sure of winning.

These are the seats I reckon they can be 100% sure of losing…
Bradford East (to Lab)
Brent Central (to Lab)
Burnley (to Lab)
Manchester Withington (to Lab)
Norwich South (to Lab)
Redcar (to Lab)
Solihull (to Con)
So that’s only 7 seats I reckon the LibDems are dead certain to lose. Which means if you add those to the seats they are dead certain to win, there are 42 which are in doubt. They fall into three categories…
LIBDEM PROBABLE/POSSIBLE HOLDS (20)
Argyll & Bute (SNP gain they got 50% in the Scottish Parl. elections to the Lib Dems 12%)
Bath (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Bristol West
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Cheadle
Cheltenham (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Colchester (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Edinburgh West (SNP gain)
Hazel Grove
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (Could be lost to the SNP)
Kingston & Surbiton
Lewes
North Devon
North East Fife
Southport (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Thornbury & Yate (almost certain Lib Dem hold)
Torbay
Twickenham
POSSIBLE OR PROBABLE LOSSES TO LABOUR (5)
Birmingham Yardley (could stay Lib Dem on Ashcroft polls)
Cambridge
Cardiff Central
East Dunbartonshire
Hornsey & Wood Green

POSSIBLE
OR PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE GAINS (16) (Certain in bold)
Berwick upon Tweed
Brecon & Radnorshire
Carshalton & Wallington
Chippenham
Eastbourne  (Looks like a Lib Dem hold based on Lord Ashcroft Polling)
Eastleigh    (More likely a Lib Dem hold or UKIP gain)
Mid Dorset & North Poole
North Cornwall
Portsmouth South
Somerton & Frome
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Sutton & Cheam (looks like a Lib Dem hold based on Lord Ashcroft Polling)
Taunton Deane
Wells
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

Gordon SNP Gain

Over all how did things stack up?
Dale predicts 8 Lib Dem definite, 20 Lib Dem probable holds,  7 certain losses and 21 probable losses.  Apart from switching 3 seats in Scotland to Lib Dem losses and 3 seats in England to Lib Dem holds and expecting the Lib Dems to hold onto one seats (perhaps not Birmingham Yardley but one of the 5) from Labour, I think we are in agreement, except at the moment I would put a further 8 Lib Dem seats as definite Conservative gains.
 Of course these are predictions as things stand and things could change. The Lib Dem poll rating could double before polling day- I can dream, can't I ?

No comments: